I need to preface this post with some words for all the leagues that play until Week 17...don't do it! Having your championship game in Week 17 is a horrible way to end your season, and a disservice to the two teams that are playing. They will now be punished for having players that are on winning teams in the NFL. But enough about this, you get the picture. The bottom line is if you're the commish in one of these leagues, change the settings for next season. And if you are a manager in one of these leagues, find a new league next season. A team shouldn't be punished for having Peyton Manning or stealing Chris Johnson in the draft.
With that said, there are still managers out there trying to win their leagues, so I'm going to do my best to help you navigate through the darkness that is Week 17. Here's the rundown of the teams and players that will or might have their fantasy values negatively affected this week.
NEW YORK GIANTS:
The Giants won't take a risk with Brandon Jacobs and his knees before this week. It's also been confirmed that David Carr will finish the game, but it's unknown at what point in the game he will come in for Eli Manning. Derrick Ward is also a tiny bit hobbled, so the best fantasy option on the Giants this week looks like Ahmad Bradshaw. All in all, you're taking a big risk starting any Giants offensive players.
ARIZONA CARDINALS:
I don't think the Cardinals can afford to rest any of their starters while they desperately need some momentum and cohesion going into the playoffs. I haven't heard anything that would suggest the Cardinals are planning on resting any of their guys. Be aware that Boldin still hasn't practiced yet, they're hoping he'll be able to play, but make sure to get confirmation before inserting him into your lineup.
TENNESSEE TITANS:
Their passing attack isn't start-worthy anyways, but Collins probably won't finish the game who knows how the time will be divided among the receivers. I don't expect to see Chris Johnson much at all this week. LenDale White will probably see the bench some too, but does present a possible start at a flex position if you need him. Otherwise avoid this offense also.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS:
The Steelers look like another team likely to rest their starters for at least part of the game. I don't expect Roethlisberger, Parker, Holmes or Ward to finish the game. Gary Russell might lead the Steelers in carries. Ward seems like a safer play over Holmes as he has been vocal about playing this week and needs 27 yards for a 1,000 yard season. Despite those facts, I don't think Ward or any other Steeler offensive players present a good option in your starting lineups.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
And the Colts, the kings of resting during Week 17. Don't listen to anything Tony Dungy says about not resting his players. The only Colt playable this week might be Dallas Clark or Anthony Gonzalez, but I would strongly advise against starting even them as it wouldn't surprise me if every single offensive skill player is out of the game by the time the 2nd Quarter begins. They've already declared Dominic Rhodes a two starting LBs out for the game this week.
BALTIMORE RAVENS:
If the Patriots lose to the Bills in the morning, then the Ravens will have clinched a playoff spot before they play on Sunday. That doesn't seem that likely to me, but just know that it's a possibility that the Ravens will rest some of their players such as many of their IDPs and QB Joe Flacco and WR Derrick Mason if the Bills manage to win.
Good luck and make sure you're not in this position next year.
Joseph Addai is active tonight, but Dominic Rhodes is inactive. Basically they seem to be canceling each other out in my mind. Neither of them present a great option for starting in your lineup, although the Colts backfield should rack up a few points against a sub-par Jacksonville run defense, so they aren't worthy of taking a gamble on. Just make sure you don't have any other solid options before using Addai or Rhodes. And I would use Rhodes before using Addai.
Marvin Harrison is inactive, so get him out of your lineup, and Dallas Clark IS active, just in case you were worried about him being labeled questionable. He makes a great play this week, especially with Harrison out. Harrison being out also gives Anthony Gonzalez a boost in value.
Jeff Garcia, Frank Gore and Joseph Addai are all inactive, so make sure to get them out of your lineup if you haven't already done so. Also, it looks like Barber will be active, but has a good chance of being limited in the game. It'd be best to bench him and get a safer option in your lineup.
There are a lot of uncertain injuries to star running backs this week, so make sure to check on all your players. Here's the updated news for all the injuries this week, I'll try to keep them updated throughout the day as I hear more news. Make sure to check the inactives tomorrow if you plan on starting any player that is on his team's injury list. You never know when your guy will wake up with a sore elbow on game day like Carson Palmer did earlier this season. It's playoff time, so that means not taking any chances, and that means I'm dragging myself out of bed before 10:00 AM, unfortunately.
Quarterback:
Matt Cassel - Cassel has now practiced two days since his father passed away and is almost certain to play this week. He makes for a strong play this week.
Matt Hasselbeck (Questionable) - For some reason Hasselbeck is listed as questionable instead of out, but make no mistake, he will not play this week. In fact he probably shouldn't play the rest of the year with 4 of his starting linemen out for the season; that's a recipe for disaster. Seneca Wallace will start in his place and actually has a very good match-up if you're in desperate need of help and feel like taking a risk; he could be a sneaky play.
Jeff Garcia (Questionable) - Garcia's been limited in practice all week. Most signs, including Coach Gruden's statement, point to Garcia starting this week. If you have to use him, make sure check the inactives as this is not a sure thing.
Running Back:
Marion Barber (Questionable) - Barber returned to practice on Friday, but only as a limited participant. There are a lot of reasons to stash him on your bench and not bother yourself with waiting to hear if he will play. He might share the workload with Tashard Choice, has a very tough match-up and plays on Sunday night. If you have absolutely no depth behind Barber, wait to see the inactive for Sunday Night Football and make sure you have another RB option playing in that game or the MNF game.
Frank Gore (Questionable) - Most people believe that Gore will not play this week. We might hear more concrete info later today. No matter what, expect to have Gore on your bench. [UPDATE: The Niners activated a RB from their practice squad today. That would heavily suggest Gore has already been declared out and has no chance of playing this week.]
Brandon Jacobs (Out) - Jacobs is out and Derrick Ward will start in his place. Ward presents a very solid option this week for anyone needing a RB. I would have him as a top-20 (closer to 15) RB for this week.
Joseph Addai (Questionable) - Addai looks almost certain to miss this week's game after not practicing all week. Get him out of your lineups, and if you have Dominic Rhodes, get him in your lineup with a very favorable match-up.
LenDale White (Questionable) - White had a limited practice Friday after not practicing at all the whole week. It still seems like the Titans expect White to play this week. Make sure to check the inactives if you plan on starting White.
Kevin Smith (Questionable) - He's been limited in practice all week, but is expected to play and start against the Colts. He doesn't have a high ceiling this week, but with the favorable match-up, you could probably do worse if your struggling with your RB options.
Selvin Young (Probable) - Many reasons to not consider playing him despite the probable tag and the fact that he had full practices. He was listed as probable last week and didn't play. He won't see tons of touches in his first game back despite the Broncos lack of healthy RBs. The Broncos play in the afternoon game and you won't know Young's status for sure until game time. And I just don't see any reason for the Broncos to give much thought to running the ball.
Ray Rice (Doubtful) - Rice hasn't practiced all week and won't play this week, but considering the Ravens will be going against the Steelers defense, it might help Rice to keep his YPC intact while McGahee and McClain get stuffed at the line of scrimmage every run play.
Wide Receiver:
Calvin Johnson (Questionable) - He's listed as questionable and was limited in practice on Friday, but I don't think anyone doubts that Johnson will play this week. Just to be careful, and because it's the playoffs, make sure to check the inactives.
Laveranues Coles (Questionable) - Coles will most likely play, but doesn't offer a great match-up this week. Go with another option if you can, but know that he should be playing if you need him.
Domenik Hixon (Questionable) - Hixon was limited in practice on Friday and will be a game time decision. I haven't heard anyone leaning one way or another, so it looks like a 50-50 chance. The Giants play on Sunday Night, so unless your other option is a Brown, Eagle, Cowboy or another Giant, get Hixon out of your lineup.
Derrick Mason (Probable) - He had a full practice on Friday and will play this week. Whether you should start him is another matter as he goes against the Steelers D. Start him if you must as he should get a decent amount of targets, but don't expect a big game, and bench him if you have someone else with similar value.
Kevin Curtis (Probable) - Curtis also had a full practice on Friday, but just like Mason, is not a strong recommendation to start. He hasn't looked the like the same receiver from last year this whole season (well the parts of the season he's been healthy). Plus, I don't see the Eagles having to pass the ball that much against the Browns. You can use him if you have to, but look for other options.
Mark Bradley (Questionable) - Bradley will be a game time decision, and the fact that terrible wind conditions are expected for the SD/KC game should cement the decision to keep Bradley on your bench.
Tight End:
Kellen Winslow (Out) - He's out this week, and the possibility that we won't return again this season is very real and looking more and more likely.
L.J. Smith (Probable) - Although he's been missing and limited in practice this week, he's listed as probable which suggests he will definitely be playing this week. Either way he probably shouldn't be in your lineup.
I know I just mentioned the horrible performance that Cassel had last week but he was playing the Steelers. Although I wish my Seahawks had a Steeler-like defense, they just don't. So Christmas is coming early for Cassel as he steps into Qwest Field Sunday. The Seahawks pass defense is dead last. Yeah, that's behind San Fran, San Diego, and Denver. Maybe that stat's a little skewed because of strength of schedule....wait, they play in possibly the worst division in the NFL. He'll get back to his glory days (Week 11 and Week 12).
Dud - Tony Romo @ Pit
Yeah yeah Romo's back, the Cowboy's O are firing on all cylinders....they said that about New England. A guy who had just had two straight 400 yard games (Matt Cassel), playing at home, looked horrible against the Steelers last week. Any QB that steps on the field against the Steelers is a DUD. Even Tony. Did I mention the forecast of snow in Pittsburgh?
Running Back:
Stud - Peyton Hillis vs KC
Is this guy legit? I don't know if he's the next star RB but last week he just destroyed a top run defense (NY Jets). Hillis ran for 129 yards on 22 carries and a TD. Guess who's coming up next? Kansas City. They are second to last in run defense. People say don't "get cute," in the playoffs. It's not getting cute when Hillis has scored 4 TD's in the last three weeks. He's a definite starter this week.
Dud - DeAngelo Williams vs TB
4 TDs last week for Williams. Don't be fooled by that. All of those TDs were 1 yard runs. I have to admit he has been scorching hot as of late but his great games haven't been against the best of teams. Coming off a great game in Week 5 against the Chiefs, Williams faced Tampa Bay in Week 6. The Bucs held Deangelo to 27 yards off 11 carries. The Bucs have the 4th ranked scoring defense in the NFL and have only given up 1 rushing TD all year. He's a very tough player to sit but if you have the depth at the RB position seriously consider benching him.
Wide Receiver:
Stud - Lance Moore vs Atl
Lance Moore has been on fire as of late and it's looking more and more like he's Drew Brees' new favorite target. He has had a TD in each of his last 5 games and now faces a below average Atlanta pass defense at home. The roll Lance is on is too good to pass up. If I owned him in any league he would start, no questions asked.
Dud - Terrell Owens @ Pit
TO is a great receiver....so was Randy Moss. That Pittsburgh D stingy on the pass and they hit as hard as anyone. Moss and Co were so afraid of getting destroyed after catching the ball last week they barely caught anything. TO is a big fella but you know he saw that shot Wes Welker took....ouch. Romo will be getting pressured from all over and will have no time whatsoever. Until someone figures out Pitt's top ranked pass defense any receiver playing against them is a no no.
Thursday, December 25, 2008