-So my fourth round pick in the mock draft, Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall will have a busy pre-season, not on the football field, but in the courtroom. He is awaiting trial on a DUI charge and also has had reports come out that he was reportedly arrested for a misdemeanor battery charge against his girlfriend, although no charges have been filed. Sources have suggested that if found guilty of the DUI, Marshall could be suspended for a number of games this season. What this means is that until this matter is resolved, Marshall has to be dropped about 5 to 10 spots (depending on how much of a risk taker you are) among the wide receivers, and that I should’ve picked Anquan Boldin instead of Marshall in the mock draft. While he is on the field, Marshall is a top 10 WR, but don’t draft him like that until you know he’ll be available for all 16 games.
-Najeh Davenport was released by the Pittsburgh Steelers, joining Kevin Jones, LaMont Jordan, Shaun Alexander, Cedric Benson and Travis Henry among the unemployed running back ranks. Teams that have been rumored as possible fits for Davenport are Detroit, New Orleans, Tennessee, Arizona and Cleveland, although representatives from Arizona have already denied any interest and Davenport said Cleveland is not an option due to the presence of the mother of his son in Cleveland (not a happy family I’m assuming). As is the case with all the other available running backs, I’ll be keeping an eye on any possible signing and their potential fantasy impact. One of these guys signing with a team like Detroit, Arizona or Tampa Bay (who is rumored to be interested in Jones) could negatively affect the values of a Kevin Smith, Edgerrin James or Earnest Graham.
-Speaking of Earnest Graham, he is one of my players to avoid this season. Graham and the Buccaneers just agreed upon a three-year, $10.5 million extension, that has very little guaranteed money, which is not the type of contract given to a featured starting running back. This contract shows the small amount of faith that the Bucs have in Graham, as he is making barely more than backup Warrick Dunn. Dunn, Graham and Michael Pittman all shared carries during Tampa Bay’s last minicamp, which is not a good sign for Graham who is supposed to be set as the featured back. Head coach Jon Gruden was also quoted earlier in the off-season as saying that he expects Dunn to play a lot, although it might’ve been motivation for a then holding out Graham, but still not great words to hear for any prospective Graham owners. As I mentioned before, the Bucs have also been reported to be interested in Kevin Jones. We’re also talking about a running back that managed to only gain 219 total yards in all three seasons combined before last year. All these facts lead to Graham being a risk to avoid on draft day. I’d much rather have Michael Turner, Jonathan Stewart, Thomas Jones, Darren McFadden or LenDale White, who all have lower Average Draft Positions than Graham.
-Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch just pleaded guilty to a traffic violation stemming from a hit-and-run incident. He will avoid any criminal charges and although it’s a possibility, it is VERY unlikely that Lynch will be suspended due to these events. On the other hand, the Bills offensive coordinator recently said he expects Lynch to be in on third downs a lot more often this year than last. Lynch is one of my top 10 running backs and is being selected a few picks too late in most drafts in my opinion.
-The biggest story of the past week has been the possibility of a return by Brett Favre. There has been a flurry of news and speculation in the last five days concerning Favre. The strongest supported rumors are that Favre wants to come back and play football, and that the Packers would rather see him stay retired. The situation is that Favre can force the Packers’ hand by formally declaring he wants to return, after that the Packers must reinstate him onto their roster, release him, or trade him. Personally, I have a hard time imagining Favre on any other team besides the Packers next year. I also imagine Favre as the type of person who would have a hard time staying retired now that he has the itch to play again. As unlikely as it seems, we could definitely see the same old #4 back under center for the Packers next year. How can you not feel bad for Aaron Rodgers right now? We’ll have to wait and see which quarterback, if any, will lose their starting job this season to the Packers legend.
Johnson has too much talent and potential to pass up here. None of the other WRs left have the potential that he has to put up a monster year so I had to go with him.
52. Dan G – WR Roddy White, Atl
White managed to put together a 6 TD, 1200 yard season last year with a pathetic QB trio at the helm. Imagine what he'll do with a top talent like Matt Ryan. Ryan is as close to NFL-ready as any rookie QB can be and he will be looking for his WRs early and often to establish rhythm. I predict this to be White's breakout year into fantasy stardom.
53. Trevor – WR Marvin Harrison, Ind
With the exception of last year (pretty much the only year he was ever injured), Marvin Harrison has been the most consistent and highest producing WR in the league. From the '99 season to the '06 season he never dipped below 1100 yards and double digit TDs. His legal troubles look like they will fizzle out and not be a factor. To pick him in the 6th round, his upside greatly outweighed the downsides of injury or age. Having both Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison on the same team was a concern, but since when was getting 6 points for pretty much every TD Peyton Manning throws a bad thing?
54. Danh – QB Derek Anderson, Cle
A breakout year for a Cleveland QB? We must’ve been dreaming. Well we weren’t and watch Anderson hold his production steady into this season with all the weapons he has in that offense.
55. Tim – WR Dwayne Bowe, KC
I like Bowe’s chances to be the go to guy in KC. Coming off a great rookie year, he stands to be the # 1 receiver there. I think Bowe’s good for 1100 and 8 td's, not bad production for my #3 receiver.
56. Dan B – QB Donovan McNabb, Phi
In order to avoid being that guy who has to rely on David Garrard, a quarterback needs to be selected here. The choice comes down to Bulger and McNabb, the only quarterbacks with likely upside here. Unfortunately, neither quarterback will threaten Brett Favre's consecutive games streak anytime soon. McNabb has been great in stretches over the past couple of years and provides a running threat on top of his passing. Of course, he is fragile, but I would rather have a good player for 12 games and a hot hand off the waiver wire for 4 than I would an average quarterback for 16.
57. Dunn – WR Lee Evans, Buf
There were some tempting running backs here, but I decided to get my last starting receiver instead (especially with Marshall’s possible suspension looming). I like Evans’ potential as a WR3 and the Bills’ selection of WR James Hardy should only help as Evans’ main downfall has been the fact that defenses have been able to key on him all game long. This is still a player who had 1290 yards and 8 TDs two years ago; I’ll take that potential as my third receiver.
58. Chris – QB Marc Bulger, Stl
My pick of Bulger is as much a panic pick as anything. I didn't anticipate the QB run that happened and was caught at the tail end, so I grabbed the best QB left on my board. While I'm not terribly thrilled with the pick, it could have been a lot worse.
59. Dave – TE Dallas Clark, Ind
Peyton Manning loves finding Clark in the red zone, as noted by his 11 touchdowns last year and he is the best TE left on my board. I'm worried that if I don't take him now, he will be picked in the next two picks before it gets back to me, so I'm calling his name at this pick.
60. Ben – RB Jonathan Stewart, Car
We can assume Panthers brass doesn't have faith in DeAngelo Williams being a full-time back or else they wouldn't have picked this bruiser from Oregon. Having seen him in high school and college, Stewart's blend of power and speed makes him an ideal NFL back, and perfect for my team knowing that Brandon Jacobs has been known to miss a few games.
Now I would love to pick another WR or add to RB depth at this point. But this draft so far has followed some pretty strong trends and I've got a feeling quarterbacks will be the flavor of this round. Regardless of what the trend might be, I still think this is later than where Brees should go. The alternative to taking Brees here is waiting for whatever QB manages to make his way to the end of the 6th.
42. Dave – WR Greg Jennings, GB
I need another WR in this slot, and even with Favre gone; Jennings should put up numbers in Green Bay. He will be the go to guy for Rodgers or Brohm and I love his touchdown making ability. It seems every year this guy is doubted by fantasy drafters and slips to the middle rounds. I decided not to let this happen in this draft.
43. Chris – WR Roy Williams, Det
I think the WR run continues through this round. Roy Williams is the highest rated guy for me out of the next few guys and it's time for me to grab another wideout.
44. Dunn – QB Carson Palmer, Cin
I feel like there is a big drop-off after Palmer when it comes to the quarterbacks. The top five all have a good chance of being a top three QB this season and no other QB has that upside. I was hoping Brees would fall to me, but it wasn’t that long ago that Palmer was considered the #2 QB. Hopefully the dysfunctional family that is the Bengals passing attack can get along well enough to make this a good pick. By getting one of the top 5 quarterbacks, I don’t have to worry about drafting another QB for a while. I thought about Santonio Holmes here, but I feel the difference between Palmer and whichever QB I could get next round is larger than the difference between Holmes and the WRs next round.
45. Dan B – RB Thomas Jones, NYJ
Jones is a risk/reward pick. The risk is that he is getting old and running backs often get banged up as they reach their 30s. The reward is that the Jets were able to sign Alan Faneca in the off-season. Consistent fantasy producers follow elite linemen around the league. Although some would point to Adrian Peterson's amazing running last year, I would point to Steve Hutchinson, Bryant McKinnie, and Matt Birk. Thomas Jones is not going to have an AP season, but he will certainly gain yards behind D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Alan Faneca so long as he stays healthy. This is a huge upside pick in my opinion.
46. Tim – WR Santonio Holmes, Pit
I’ve always heard of the 3-year plan for WR's. They say most WRs take 3 years to develop and Holmes enters his 3rd season as a sleeper pick for me. The Steelers will pass the ball and Roethlisberger started building a connection with Holmes. Holmes will be the top Steeler WR this season. Hines Ward has fallen behind and I believe Holmes will see 80 balls, 1200 and 10 td's as the #1 receiver.
47. Danh – TE Kellen Winslow, Cle
Winslow is finally making strides after his non-existent rookie season.
48. Trevor – QB Matt Hasselbeck, Sea
Last year Hasselbeck posted career bests in passing yards and TDs placing him in the top echelon of fantasy passers. I see him putting up similar numbers this year. A lot of people might point to his lack of top quality wideouts as a reason to think his production will decline, but I think many people overlook the fact that he has never had a pass catcher out of the backfield. I think that this fact alone will add 400+ yards and at least a couple more TDs to his stats. The other QBs on the board may have better upside than the consistent Hasselbeck, but I don't want to take chances on an injury prone, aging McNabb or a potential one hit wonder like Anderson.
49. Dan G – TE Tony Gonzalez, KC
The man has missed one game in 11 seasons and is the picture of consistency. His TDs are not what they were 5 years ago, but he put up almost 1200 yards receiving last season and the Croyle/Huard combo will be looking for him again in 2008 as the offense looks to right the ship.
50. Mike – QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
Either the addition of Mendenhall will keep opening the airwaves for Big Ben or the Steelers will hand it off 40 times a game. The Steelers still have enough WR weapons to help Ben out so I think he'll be ok.
-Just to put to rest all of the rumors I mentioned in my 6/3 Recent News blog and any others you might have heard about wide receiver Chad Johnson being a question mark for this season, he’s back at the Bengals practice facility, he’s had a minor ankle surgery to remove bone spurs and has confirmed that he will be present for training camp; so much for all those holding out during the season suggestions and/or threats. Chad Johnson will be present for training camp, will be in uniform for the entire season, and most likely, be determined to prove himself even more on the football field this season after his off-season antics got out of control, even for his standards. Don’t hesitate to draft Chad Johnson at the appropriate spot. Welcome back to the WR1 tier Chad.
-I haven’t reported on them at all yet, but I have been, and will continue to keep my eye on my Seattle Seahawks receiving core. With Matt Hasselbeck still lining up behind center, and Coach Holmgren around for one more year, there are going to be some nice sleeper candidates at wide receiver for this team. The only problem is that there are a few too many candidates. Although they aren’t the Tennessee Titans receivers when it comes to sheer volume and complete lack of talent, there is some good competition going on especially for the #3 WR spot. More information to come later, but for now it looks like Bobby Engram is still holding out over his insufficient contract, but is expected back for training camp and provides the most value, Nate Burleson has impressed during minicamp and seems to be securing the other starting spot, Courtney Taylor and Ben Obomanu seem to be the frontrunners for the #3 spot with Logan Payne and Jordan Kent behind them, and Deion Branch is looking more and more likely to start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list with a possible mid-season return.
-Oakland Raiders wide receiver Javon Walker was robbed and left unconscious in Las Vegas a week ago. The whole story has not been confirmed yet, but there have been suggestions that he sustained an orbital fracture and might have impaired his vision. He was released from the hospital one day after being admitted. Sources from the Oakland Raiders have stated that they fully expect Walker to be fine for training camp. I usually like to avoid reporting on players’ off-field antics and run-ins with the law unless they directly affect their fantasy value because I believe the media focuses too much on that kind of news, but this is just another one of many reasons why I will be trying my hardest to stop any of you from drafting Javon Walker this year. I wanted to give him a chance to turn himself into a possible sleeper because I still remember his amazing explosiveness before his injury problems, but that’s just looking less and less likely.
-There have been some indications coming out of Tampa Bay’s off-season that might suggest running back Earnest Graham could see a few less carries this season. Graham skipped all “voluntary” OTAs to show displeasure about his contract status while his agent and the Bucs have been discussing a new contract. In the meantime, Coach Gruden has been praising Warrick Dunn and saying he’s more than just a third down back. Also, reports are extremely positive about Carnell Williams’ comeback from a torn patellar tendon and although he’s still a long ways away from contributing in any shape or form, he could become a factor in the second half of the season. Graham did show up for mandatory minicamp, but split time with Dunn and Michael Bennett during that camp. He also made no promise to show up to training camp if his contract isn’t settled by then. At this point, I would much rather have a Jonathan Stewart, Thomas Jones or LenDale White than Graham.
-Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch has been involved in a long drawn out process involving a hit-and-run case where he was supposedly driving for the last three weeks. As I said earlier, this is not the type of stuff that I like to spend my time reporting on, but it has now entered the realm of affecting his fantasy value. Lynch is expected to plead guilty to the charges, and although he most likely won’t serve any jail time, there is a possibility that he might face some punishment from the NFL for the incident. It is reported that there is a small chance that Lynch could be given a one game suspension. Although it looks unlikely right now, if he is suspended for one game, I would drop him a little, not too much, in my rankings, most likely behind the likes of Ryan Grant, Clinton Portis, Jamal Lewis, Brandon Jacobs and Willis McGahee. As of right now, I would take Grant and Portis over Lynch solely based on the possibility of a suspension.
-Despite a few intriguing free agents at the running back position such as Kevin Jones, Shaun Alexander and Ron Dayne, the Chicago Bears have made it clear that they don’t have a desire to acquire a new running back to compete with Matt Forte for the Chicago starting running back position after the release of Cedric Benson. The lack of other great options and what seems like strong support from the front office and the coaching staff has put Forte in a very good position to give his fantasy owners consistent production this season. Forte is looking like a very nice RB3 option this year.
With the first pick in the 4th round I'll take Chad Johnson. He'll put up his usual 1400 yards and 8 TDs for someone next year.
(WR R.Moss, RB L.Johnson, RB R.Bush)
32. Dan G – WR T.J. Hushmandzadeh
With my fourth pick I'm taking T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The irreverent Ocho Cinco is perpetually on the fritz and cannot be relied on, so I see Housh getting the bulk of the receptions. He has been more than a productive WR in his last four seasons and I expect him to improve on his 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns from last year.
(QB P.Manning, RB R.Brown, RB M.Turner)
33. Trevor – TE Antonio Gates, SD
Looking at the players left on the board at this point, Gates gives the largest advantage over the other players at his position. The difference between the top few tight ends and the rest of the pack is huge, and I saw an opportunity to take the best player at his position. Some would argue that Jason Witten will have a better fantasy year than Gates, but he has not been as consistent as Gates over the years, especially in racking up the TDs.
(RB F.Gore, WR R.Wayne, RB M.Jones-Drew)
34. Danh – WR Torry Holt, Stl
What can I say, I needed the best available WR to round up my receiving core and I expect Holt to bounce back after an underwhelming season.
(RB M.Barber, RB R.Grant, WR M.Colston)
35. Tim – RB Darren McFadden, Oak
This pick was hard to make, lots of good WRs but I still need a RB and can you say Adrian Peterson? Well, McFadden’s not Peterson but I don’t see why he can’t have the same year Peterson had last season. The Raiders didn’t draft him to sit on the bench and with Fargas the only one in his way for carries, I feel that D-Mac will prove he's worthy of that number one overall pick, and then I should be "smiling like a butchers dog" come playoff time.
(QB T.Brady, RB C.Portis, WR L.Fitzgerald)
36. Dan B – WR Plaxico Burress, NYG
Strike 1: He has a bad attitude. Strike 2: I hate relying on the Giants passing offense, which is schizophrenic at best. No, this is not a pick without risk, but the reward is just as great. Plaxico scores touchdowns because Plaxico is gigantic. It is that simple. There were plenty of other viable options here, including my sleeper, who I hope to pick up next round, but I wanted Plaxico's TDs.
(RB J.Addai, RB M.Lynch, WR S.Smith)
37. Dunn – WR Brandon Marshall, Den
I really like the potential Marshall provides with this pick. Although there is some risk and concern, his upside was too great to pass on for my WR2. Marshall had arm surgery for nerve damage after falling into a television, but his progress has gone well and nothing suggests he won’t be ready for training camp. Now the good news, after the Broncos signed a few mediocre receivers to compete opposite Marshall, he could lead the league in targets again, just like he did last year. Coming off a 100+, 1300+ season last year Marshall is young and still improving. Look for Cutler and Marshall to take a big step forward this year and make up one of the better QB/WR combos in the league.
(RB S.Jackson, RB J.Lewis, WR A.Johnson)
38. Chris – TE Jason Witten, Dal
He's the consensus #2 and arguably the #1 TE in the game. I think the rest of the wideouts left here are going to be very close, so I'd rather sure up a position and wait for the turn to take my next wideout.
(RB B.Westbrok, RB W.McGahee, WR B.Edwards)
39. Dave – WR Anquan Boldin, Ari
I have my two running backs and my QB, now it is time to start moving on to the wide receivers. I believe Boldin is the best value left on the board along with another guy I hope to get on the snake thru, so that is why he gets the call at this pick.
(RB A.Peterson, RB L.Maroney, QB T.Romo)
40. Ben – WR Wes Welker, NE
Most people have generally slotted 2 RBs, and 2 WRs so far, so I have to gauge the trends a little bit more for my next pick. This pick, however, does not take much science. I can complement T.O. with the speedy Welker, who used Moss’ double-teams to find all sorts of space last year to the tune of 1175 yards. It's true that he gives up some red-zone touches to Moss, but if your league awards points per reception then he should be going much higher than this, even in a non-PPR league, his week by week consistency warrants his selection here.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008